The Long Dash: Philadelphia
The City & The River
As the crow files Philadelphia is about 56 miles from the Atlantic. If you follow the Delaware its more than 90 miles. So it's no surprise you might not realize Philadelphia is directly threatened by sea level rise. But the Delaware is a tidal river, and geographically the river and more broadly the East Coast of the USA are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. As Global Mean Sea Level rises the Delaware River in Philadelphia will rise as well.
The three main impacts of climate change on Philadelphia will be:
- More extreme temperatures, especially in summer
- More extreme and unpredictable storms
- Flooding in low-lying areas: both from storms and sea level rise
These three impacts are interconnected. For example, while most of Philadelphia is high enough to not be directly threatened by the first few feet of sea level rise, the rising river will increase risk of flooding from storms even for higher areas of the city. The Long Dash uses sea level rise to express the urgency of climate change mitigation and resiliency but addresses other climate change impacts through the choreographic challenges.
Old City, Northern Liberties, Fishtown, and Olde Richmond, four adjacent neighborhoods, were chosen for The Long Dash because they are, excluding their shorelines, high enough to avoid inundation from sea level rise alone until 2100 on a high emissions scenario. This allows The Long Dash to be played without catastrophic flooding across all but the most extreme sea level rise scenarios.
For The Long Dash we used neighborhood boundaries from Google Maps. Google Maps uses a variety of undisclosed sources to determine neighborhood boundaries. Northern Liberties is the oldest, originally founded in the 1680s while Olde Richmond is such a recent invention that it is not found on the city’s neighborhood and places list.
We had originally imagined having three levels of difficulty following 3 different RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathway)*. Because we had limited time to explain RCPs at the Philadelphia Science Festival we sent all teams down RCP 4.5, a scenario in which we drastically curtail carbon emissions by 2040. As we develop future versions of the game we will bring back multiple RCPs.
*RCPs replaced emission scenarios as the primary way to talk about climate futures with the IPCCs 2014 report. Our RCP 4.5 is based on NOAA’s January 2017 Technical Report.
The global climate is very difficult to predict. Many factors play into predicting how fast sea levels will rise. For our sea level rise timeline we used data from a 2017 NOAA report*2 that considers projections from multiple sources. These projections are more dire than previous due to recent research around rapid ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica however they do not reflect the most recent findings of the IPCC.